Everton vs. Tottenham Betting Statistics & Analysis

Are you looking for Premier League betting data and sports betting statistics to make informed bets? In this article, we analyze Tottenham’s shot statistics ahead of their match against Everton, using advanced data insights from PropsData.io.

Analyzing Tottenham’s Shots Data for Betting

We open the sports betting analytics tool and navigate to:

Team Statistics → Premier League → Team: Tottenham → Opponent: Everton → Shots – For

After evaluating the latest betting odds, we focus on Tottenham’s shots on goal. By analyzing the last 20 matches, we gain valuable insights into Tottenham’s shot trends to help guide our betting strategy.

Betting Odds Analysis for Tottenham’s Shot Line

In this fixture, Tottenham has been given an Over/Under 14.5 shots line when playing away against Everton. Based on their last 20 games, this line appears to be fair.

Using betting probability calculations, Propsdata estimate the correct odds for Under 14.5 Shots to be 1.85, meaning there’s potential value in this market.

How to Calculate Odds & Probabilities in Sports Betting

Two odds always add up to 100% probability. We know the Over odds are 2.18, so we calculate its implied probability:

1/2.18=0.459=45.9%

This means the probability for Under 14.5 Shots is:
100%−45.9%=54.1%
To convert 54.1% probability into decimal odds, we calculate:
1/0.541=1.85
Thus, the fair odds for Under 14.5 Shots should be 1.85.

Identifying Value Bets Using Betting Data

Bookmakers’ odds:
Bet365, Betinia, and CampoBet offer Over 14.5 Shots @ 1.80 and Under 14.5 Shots @ 1.90
Based on our calculations, we identify a 2.7% value bet on Under 14.5 Shots
How to Calculate Value in Sports Betting
The simplest way to calculate betting value is to divide the offered odds by the fair odds.

1.90/1.85=1.027=2.7%

This confirms that the Under 14.5 Shots bet has positive expected value (EV), an essential concept for long-term betting profitability.

Betting Trends: Tottenham’s Shot Patterns

From the moving average trendline, we see that Tottenham’s shot volume has been declining throughout the season. This means data from earlier matches may not be as relevant, and recent games should be weighted more heavily when making betting decisions.

To refine our analysis, we apply filters for recent away games.

Adjusting Filters for Better Betting Insights

We now filter:

All away matches – Tottenham’s last 15 games

With these filters, we calculate the adjusted fair odds at 2.95, which increases the value bet on Under 14.5 Shots @ 1.90 to 26.5% EV.

However, a small sample size (7 games) introduces uncertainty in probability accuracy. To improve reliability, we remove outlier teams that significantly skew the data.

Filtering Outlier Teams for More Accurate Betting Data
We exclude:

• Manchester City and Arsenal (low shots conceded)
• Southampton (high shots conceded).

We exclude:

• Manchester City and Arsenal (low shots conceded)
• Southampton (high shots conceded).

After removing these teams, the adjusted shot line data remains stable, reinforcing our betting decision. However, with a sample size of just 4 games, we should cross-check with another approach before finalizing our bet.

Cross-Checking Betting Data: Everton’s Home Defense
To verify our bet, we analyze Everton’s home defensive statistics:

Team: Everton → Opponent: Tottenham → Shots – Against

Since team shot attempts are more predictive than opponent shot concessions, we primarily use this data to confirm our main analysis.

Final Betting Prediction & Best Bet

Based on our sports betting data analysis, the best bet for this match is:

Bet: Tottenham Under 14.5 Shots (Away vs. Everton)
Odds: 1.90
Bookmaker: Bet365, Betinia, Campobet

All odds mentioned reflect sportsbook offerings at the time of posting this article.

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